Toward a complex spatial history? Tracing the (non-stationary) economic disparities between northern and southern Italy

The short-term economic dynamics of local districts in light of the increasing regional disparities in Italy is examined. A multidimensional approach of ‘economic development’ is assumed and contextual variables such as the share of agriculture and industry in total value added, labour productivity by sector, per-capita and per-worker value added, have been evaluated jointly adopting an exploratory analysis that includes inferential and non-parametric statistics, integrated in appropriate geographical information systems. Economic dynamics of local districts in two separate phases (mid-1990s and mid-2000s) of the recent Italian development path were evaluated. This approach was preferred to more traditional methodologies centred on convergence analysis of income levels and change over time, allowing a refined discussion of the increasingly complex geography of economic development and ʼnewly emerging’ regional divides. The factors supposed to have a prominent role in such dynamics have been also investigated. The empirical results suggest that the traditional North-South gap consolidated in recent years. Coastal-inland and urban-rural gradients were crucial especially in economically disadvantaged districts, outlining a latent transition from agriculture and state-driven industry towards services with low-value added. The persistence of North-South disparities allowed identification of ‘structural’ dimensions of change as a possible target for integrated social policies.