Economic hardship resulting from the late 2000s Great Recession and long-term changes in mental health: a prospective analysis from the Moli-sani study

Purpose: Economic downturns may have detrimental effects on mental health. We investigated the association of economic hardship resulting from the late 2000s Great Recession with long-term changes in mental health. Methods: We analysed data from 1,647 participants to the larger Moli-sani cohort (2005–2010, Italy), who were re-examined between 2017 and 2020. To evaluate economic hardship, we performed a Latent Class Analysis on nine items linked to change in employment status and financial hardship. Depression symptoms were measured by the Patients’ Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2; higher values indicate more depressive symptoms; data available in N = 941 individuals) and health perception as assessed by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (decreased values indicate worsening of health perception). Results: Economic hardship was categorized into three classes: “None”, “Average” and “High”, the latter reflecting increasing economic hardship. Mean (standard deviation) changes in PHQ-2, SF-36 mental and physical after 12.8 years (median) were − 0.1 (1.3), 0.5 (9.9) and − 2.2 (6.2) units, respectively. Changes in SF-36 mental score decreased by 1.0 unit (0.3) monotonically across “none” to “average” to “high” category in a multivariable-adjusted model analysis; the SF-36 physical score decreased by 0.4 (0.2) unit and PHQ-2 increased by 0.1 (0.1). In comparison with participants in the “none”, those in the “high” class had 84% (95%CI: 26%–170%) higher odds to report an increment in PHQ-2 values from baseline to re-examination. Conclusions: Economic hardship resulting from the Great Recession in late 2000s was associated with deterioration of mental health, as reflected by increased depression symptoms and reduced perceived mental health.