Predictors of long-term recurrent vascular events after ischemic stroke at young age: The Italian project on stroke in young adults

BACKGROUND-: Data on long-term risk and predictors of recurrent thrombotic events after ischemic stroke at a young age are limited. METHODS AND RESULTS-: We followed 1867 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke who were 18 to 45 years of age (mean age, 36.8±7.1 years; women, 49.0%), as part of the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults (IPSYS). Median follow-up was 40 months (25th to 75th percentile, 53). The primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or other arterial events. One hundred sixty-three patients had recurrent thrombotic events (average rate, 2.26 per 100 person-years at risk). At 10 years, cumulative risk was 14.7% (95% confidence interval, 12.2%-17.9%) for primary end point, 14.0% (95% confidence interval, 11.4%-17.1%) for brain ischemia, and 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.4%-1.3%) for myocardial infarction or other arterial events. Familial history of stroke, migraine with aura, circulating antiphospholipid antibodies, discontinuation of antiplatelet and antihypertensive medications, and any increase of 1 traditional vascular risk factor were independent predictors of the composite end point in multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. A point-scoring system for each variable was generated by their β-coefficients, and a predictive score (IPSYS score) was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the 0-to 5-year score was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.71; mean, 10-fold internally cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65). CONCLUSIONS-: Among patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 45 years, the long-term risk of recurrent thrombotic events is associated with modifiable, age-specific risk factors. The IPSYS score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.